SEC Bowl Bids (projected) UPDATED

According to the Wikipedia page on Automatic bowl bids to college bowl games:

• #1 Bowl Championship Series. The winner of the SEC Championship Game gains an automatic berth to a BCS bowl game, preferentially the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
• #2 The Capital One Bowl must select the team with the best overall record among non-BCS playing SEC teams, or a team within one game of the best record.
• #3-4 The Cotton Bowl Classic has first pick of remaining teams from the Western Division, and the Outback Bowl typically picks a remaining team from the Eastern Division.
• #5 The Chick-fil-A Bowl selects after those two bowls.
• #6 The Gator Bowl receives the sixth pick.
• #7-8 The Music City Bowl and the Liberty Bowl work with the SEC office to determine the seventh and eighth picks.
• #9 The BBVA Compass Bowl receives the ninth choice of SEC teams. In years where the SEC does not have nine bowl eligible teams, the BBVA Compass Bowl will select from the Sun Belt Conference instead.

If Auburn defeats South Carolina:

#1 Auburn - National Championship
#2 Arkansas - Sugar Bowl (they will select the top remaining SEC team in the BCS standings since Auburn is not available)
#3 LSU - Tied with Arkansas but lost head-to-head, and has to be picked by Capitol One Bowl according to the stipulation above.
#4 Alabama - Will be ranked above S. Carolina because of W-L - Cotton Bowl will jump all over Bama
#5 South Carolina - Outback bowl is a large possibility, since they have the next pick, and chooses typically out of the East
#6 Mississippi State - Chick-fil-A has the next pick, and MSU beat Florida head-to-head, and highest ranked available team
#7 Florida - Gator bowl will jump on them, but only because they don't have much of a choice left
#8 Georgia - Bulldogs beat the Wildcats and Vols head-to-head, and Music City and Liberty Bowls are both in Tennessee, but Liberty may get first pick and go for the Dogs.
#9 Tennesse - head-to-head winner over Kentucky puts the Vols in 9th place in the  SEC, and the Music City Bowl will get a big fan turnout from the Vols.
#10 Kentucky - Compass Bowl

But, if Auburn loses:

#1 South Carolina - Sugar Bowl
#2 Auburn - Depending on the final BCS standings, they could rob the Big 10 or Pac 10 of an at-large bid in the Fiesta Bowl
#3 Arkansas - Arkansas would get hosed big time if Auburn loses, and would slip to the Capitol One Bowl
#4 LSU - Cotton Bowl
#5 Alabama - Chick-fil-a
#6 Mississippi State - Gator Bowl
#7 Florida - Outback Bowl
#8 Georgia - Liberty Bowl
#9 Tennessee -  Music City Bowl
#10 Kentucky - Compass Bowl

A lot of people will be sad if Auburn loses, including Alabama, who would benefit most from playing in Dallas, likely against A&M. Arkansas would loses a lot of money playing in the Capitol One instead of the Sugar - LSU would probably travel better to the Cotton Bowl rather than the Capitol One, but to play in South Florida is huge for recruiting.

UPDATE:

I failed to mention Tennessee being bowl eligible, and into a bowl. The Compass bowl would get the 9th pick under normal circumstances two SEC teams do not get into BCS bowls, but since that is the case, the Compass would pick 8th (and select the 10th ranked SEC team, if eligible). I'd have to say Tennessee would be picked over Georgia and Kentucky for the Music City Bowl, putting Kentucky in the Compass Bowl.

The Thanksgiving Weekend in Review

All times in central standard time, and approximations.

Thursday
1:00 PM - Wade Phillips sits down with family for Thanksgiving
3:20 PM - Wade watches the Cowboys on TV for the first time
4:00 PM - Wade turns off the TV and tries to call Jerry for his job back
4:20 PM - Wade leave 15 voice mails, 27 text messages, and sends 3 faxes in the first half to Jerry
5:55 PM - Wade gives up after the Cowboys rally from a 17-0 deficit to pull within 3 after 3 quarters
6:35 PM - Roy Williams gets stripped of the ball in the red zone, Wade turns the TV back off.
6:40 PM - Saints score with less than 2 minutes to play to regain the lead, Wade still hasn't reached Jerry.

Friday
1:20 PM - Cam Newton gets showered in Monopoly money from Alabama fans
1:40-2:30 PM - Auburn gets showered by Alabama on both sides of the ball
2:45 PM - Auburn gets to the locker room while they still can
3:00 PM - Auburn begins to return the favors
5:00 PM - Auburn comes back from 24-0 to win 28-27
6:00 PM - The desk of Nick Saban receives a phone call from the desk of Jerry Jones ...
9:30 PM - Auburn players arrive back in Auburn, Nick Saban lands in Dallas ...

Saturday
2:00 PM - LSU fans drink the last of their bourbon before finding their seats
2:30 PM - LSU fans finally find their seats
2:40 PM - LSU fans finally realize the game started
2:50 PM - Arkansas goes up 7-0, LSU fans search for their pocket flask
3:20 PM - Arkansas scores on the last play of the half, half the LSU fans leave for the liquor store
6:00 PM - LSU fumbles at their own goal line with under a minute left, Arkansas runs the clock out
6:45 PM - LSU fans wake up from their bourbon nap, scoreboard still lit.

Sunday
7:25 PM - Arkansas jumps into the top 10 in BCS standings at 7, Auburn jumps to number 1, Alabama and LSU proud their loss meant so much
7:26 PM - Arkansas fans start balancing their checkbooks to clear some cash for Sugar Bowl tickets
7:27 PM - LSU fans from yesterday's game are finally released from county for public intoxication.
7:30 PM - Rumors start swirling that Houston Nutt is leaving Ole Miss for Colorado
7:31 PM - Gus Malzahn speculated to replace Nutt Oxford.
8:00 PM - SEC comes back to reality, Nutt will stay at Ole Miss, Colorado is relieved.

NCAA Football Four Square: Part Three

So the NCAA season doesn't exactly round out into four equal parts, much like the NFL season with 17 weeks. Regardless, after 9 weeks of games (roughly) we are at the end of the third quarter and entering the championship stretch for a lot more teams still in grasp than most would think.

I've normally broken down a couple upcoming week's games to look out for, but since we are in the "make or break" point in the season, I found it necessary to point out 5 games in the last month of the season we should keep our eyes on, because it will affect the BCS one way or another.

5) TCU at Utah - November 6

With the loser of this game absolutely out of the national championship picture and the winner is all but guaranteed a spot, I would say this week's game against Mountain West powers will be an intriguing matchup, regardless of the lack of TV coverage. Utah is currently ranked 5th, above one-loss Alabama, and TCU is at number 3. TCU is also 3rd in the computer rankings, while Utah is at 8th. Based on the history of two top-ten teams playing, the computers heavily weigh the winner (see Missouri over Oklahoma, who went from 6th to 2nd, and now at 4th after loss to Nebraska). Utah's win will be weighed much more heavily because TCU is not only more revered in the computers, but TCU is ranked 4th (or higher) in every human poll, including the two that count for the BCS - the Harris and USA Today polls. The winner is sure to be a lock in the top 3 of the BCS polls next week. TCU will win, and they will be very close to a 2nd rank overall in the BCS, since both Auburn and Oregon are playing very weak opponents this week. TCU 30 Utah 13

4) Oregon vs. Arizona - November 26

Arizona very well could make the trip to Eugene, OR with a 8-1 record (although they play at Stanford and host USC the next two weeks), but regardless of the record, Arizona could make for an interesting game against Oregon. If the Wildcats do come in with one loss, they will be playing for the Pac-10 championship, with Stanford losing to Oregon (and theoretically Arizona as well). The Wildcats have won over a very good Iowa team, and although the rest of their schedule is not as impressive, the next three weeks could help Arizona's chances in the BCS polls (currently 15th) or propel them to a Rose Bowl at the very least. Oregon's quest for a BCS title game berth will be propelled even further, likely ensuring their computer ranking doesn't fall back down to where it debuted at 8. The rest of their season should keep their ranking idle, as long as they keep winning. Arizona isn't a proven team in the Pac10 at this point, but coming in ranked in the BCS top 15 will keep Oregon's foundation solid. Oregon 44 Arizona 35

3) Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State - November 27

If Oklahoma and Oklahoma State enter their annual rivalry with equal records, like they do now, they will be playing for a Big 12 South title and a trip to the Big 12 Championship. That matchup in the Big 12 championship will likely be against a tough Nebraska team, ranked in the top 10 of the BCS at 7th currently. Oklahoma is ranked 8th with Oklahoma State 17th. If the Cowboys were able to out-dual the Sooners, a rematch with their only loss so far would bolster their standings in the BCS dramatically (see again Missouri over Oklahoma). If they win out, the could be sitting pretty at the end of the season, although there is likely no way for them to get in the BCS title game. Oklahoma, however, still has an outside chance, likely matching up against a highly ranked Nebraska team in December for the Big 12 title will surely put them in the top 5 as it stands today. Nebraska would benefit more from Oklahoma, who were beat my Mizzou and whom Nebraska handily beat. Their BCS title hunt seems more achievable than Oklahoma's.
Oklahoma 34 Oklahoma State 31

2) Oregon at Oregon State - December 4

Granted Oregon comes in still unbeaten (see number 4 above) and top-ranked, their Civil War game against the Beavers will be monumental in Corvalis, OR. Although Oregon State, granted they come in with just their one Pac10 loss (who also have USC and Stanford before Oregon) could be playing for a Rose Bowl berth. Regardless of their standings, Oregon State always plays a tough game against Oregon and the Ducks will have this one last hurdle before a BCS appearance. Oregon's improving computer standings will not likely dip anytime, although they may end the season ranked 2nd in the BCS, it is the closest thing to a stone-cold lock for a title game appearance for winning out as there is. Oregon 49 Oregon State 27

1) Auburn at Alabama - November 26

No game ranks any higher that this one. Just like 2006's Michigan-Ohio State game, who were ranked 2nd and 1st respectively, the winner is in the BCS title game, save for winning the SEC Championship game (and who knows who will play in that game from the East). Alabama, although has no love from the computers, should get plenty of it winning against the currently computer-top-ranked Tigers, plus the voters' love affair with the Tide would no doubt put them in the title game. If Auburn wins, and wins the SEC Championship game undefeated, there is little to no chance of keeping Auburn out of the title game twice in 6 years after an undefeated season (Auburn was also the only team in 2004 to finish the regular season undefeated and win the SEC title). Despite the lashing by the likes of Jesse Palmer and Will Ferrell, Auburn is just as capable of winning out as Alabama, if not more. Alabama has to travel to LSU, host an improving Mississippi State team, as well as Auburn. Auburn's only road game remaining is against Alabama.

As an Auburn fan, I don't have any doubt in my mind the Tigers are not capable of beating Alabama - I'm not expecting Alabama to win, like every TV, radio, and newspaper personality is. Alabama won on a last minute drive last year, and won the national championship. Alabama, and everyone in their right mind would agree, is not as good as they were last year. Auburn, and everyone in their right mind would agree even more, is better than they were last year. They may be more even now than they were at the middle of the season, but Auburn is improving every game. My prediction? Not so fast. I will have an Iron Bowl post when the time is right.